IMPORTANT – PLEASE READ
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Hero World Challenge (after Round 1):
Hovland Top 5 +180 – 1x
Straka Top 5 +800 – 0.25x
Western Michigan O133
West Virginia U147.5
Cal Fullerton O141.5
Portland ML -148
New Mexico St +11.5
SEASON DIVISIONAL WINNERS
Each of these bets is + EV (their odds of winning their division are better than their price indicates). THIS IS NOT WHO “I THINK WILL WIN THE DIVISION”. It is after 10,000 season simulations, who has the best chance to win relative to their odds and is providing value.
For example: Denver has a 20% chance to win their division after 10k simulations. Would you take 5.5x return on something with a 20% chance of winning? Yes. Every time.
All prices DK, anything better than these price. Here is what I bet on each:
CIN +150 – $600
DAL +190 – $600
DEN +550 – $200
LAR +1000 – $100
NO +120 – $600 (Yes, I’m aware I’m betting two teams in this division)
TB +800 – $100
TEN +350 – $400
EARLY 2024 MASTERS PLAY
Sepp Straka is 300-1 on DK. I just fired $200 to win $60k
Bet Sizing in Golf
While there is no “one size fits all” program for golf betting, I have been getting a lot of texts from members recently and I want to help each of you build your own method. You can use this verbatim, or a variance, whatever works best for you.
When I’m making a bet on a player, like Grillo for example, who is 100-1, I generally bet it this way (using $200 as an example):
$200 Top 40
$100 Top 20
$50 Top 10
Sometimes I’ll just make two of these bets and depending on the odds of the outright, I may make it larger/smaller. But in general, this is a good model to use in a standard case.
When I’m making parlay bets on say Grillo FRL /Koepka to win the PGA Championship, these are literally “pizza money” bets and are seldom more than $50. If you are thinking in terms of units, never bet more than 0.1 unit on these things.
When I make a play on say, Chez Reavie Top 20 at +750, I’m never betting much on it…0.25 to 0.5 unit max. He’s +750 for a reason, and while I may think it is great value, I’m just trying to win 2 units or so, not get rich.
The lower the odds on an outright, the more likely I am to play a full unit. For example, if Koepka is 20-1 for the PGA Championship, I’m likely playing 1 unit on him to win and 2 units Top 10 or Top 20 (I won’t invest more than 3 units in a golfer for an event).
I am increasing the size of my daily matchups, effective this week from 0.25x to 0.5x, simply because I believe that our model is revised and dialed in enough that we can have sustained success. Are we going to continue to hit 70%? No. But I do believe that long term we can hit 60%+…which is all you can ask for.
Lastly, in the interest of full transparency, when I make a 2x play on something like a Top 40, I’m likely playing more than 2x on it. I simply can’t recommend that anyone else do that. The most you’ll ever see me post is 2x.
Another strategy worth considering, when looking at outrights vs Top 10/20/30/40 is to just come up with a baseline goal dollar for all of your bets to achieve.
Here’s an example (not saying this is a bet, simply making an example):
Jason Day +1500 outright – $100 bet wins you $1500
Harry Higgs +1500 Top 10 – $100 bet wins you $1500
Jimmy Walker Top 20 +400 – $375 wins you $1500
That might be your card for the week, other than matchups. You’ve invested $575 and you can absolutely win all 3 bets (especially if you bet them someplace like BetMGM that pays “ties win full”)
In this example, I would say this is a $200/unit bettor. If I were the bettor who made those bets, I would be betting $100/matchup on the Fri-Sun matchups and $200 on the tournament long H2H matchups.
Hope this helps and please text me with any questions, etc. Thanks for being a part of the family everyone!