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The player’s championship at TPC Sawgrass is here. Who are you going to be looking to back this week? We’ll talk about that next. Let’s go.
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TPC Sawgrass is a 7,200 yard par 72 designed by legendary golf course designer Pete dye, a 7,200 yard par 72 is a short course by PGA standards. So you do not have to be a bomber here to content rather than being long, you have to be accurate. Par four scoring is absolutely critical here. We’ve seen the past winners par for performance equally as important as par five performance here, not something we see everywhere. Given the opportunity for birdies on par fives that said, you have to birdie the par fives that have an average of a 39% birdie rate here. Equally important, not voguing the par fours. There are five par fours ranging from 450 to 500 these have a 21% average bogey rate, so you must avoid those landmines. Make birdies on the par fives, avoid bogeys on the par fours and find yourself a winner.
Scrambling is also been another predictive stat here, so we’re going to build that into our model as well. Two gentlemen we’re going to highlight today have been discussed on previous pods. Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed. Webb Simpson comes in at 30 to one seven to one was a top 10 and about three to one to finish top 20 he is ninth on tour in 2020 in strokes gained scrambling and in his last 50 rounds he is six than par four scoring 14th and Birdie’s gained and 17th in bogey avoidance. His course history here is great, a win and two 16 place finishes in the last three years in terms of current form. That’s outstanding as well. And his last six events, he has a first a third, a 10th a second and a seventh that’s a win. And for top tens and his last six events, Patrick Reed is 33 to one he’s plus seven 50 to finish top 10 and three to one to finish top 20 as well in 2020 his scrambling has not gotten off to a good start, but he was 23rd street in strokes gained scrambling last year.
So we know he’s capable. Where he is very strong. This year is in par four scoring where he ranks second over the last 50 rounds and birdies gained. He’s third and in bogey avoidance, he’s 13th his course history here is decent. He has two top 20 fives in his last five years. Good, not great. However his current form is great. In his last 12 events. He has two wins, a second, a third, a sixth and eighth and a ninth. So that’s two wins and five other top tens and his last 12 events. I would call that ridiculous current form. Other folks we like from a betting and head to head wager slash DFS perspective, our Hideki Matsuyama, uh, Joel Damon and Billy Horschel. That will be a wrap this week for the player’s championship. Looking forward to the event, we thank you very much for listening to the cut maker podcast where we give you the daily information you need to make more informed DFS and wagering decisions on the PGA. Check us out at [inaudible] pod.com and we’ll talk with you tomorrow.