The Core Plays
Easy to narrow in on the Euros here and Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) is a good place to start. Fleetwood has Top 5’s in two of his last 3 starts and Top 5’s in two of his last 3 trips here…not too bad for a guy who is +2200.
While Fleetwood has yet to win on the PGA Tour, he won on the European Tour in November and has several other Euro wins over the past few years.
His ball striking has been very good, outside of one or two outliers and this sets up to be a great week to take a chance on Fleetwood.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500) has finished 6th and 2nd in his last two Scottish Opens and comes in with Top 20’s in 3 of his last 4 and a win in April and took 10th at the Masters.
His putting is phenomenal, and he is going to be comfortable putting here. Off the tee, where he has struggled 3 of the last 5 weeks, is almost irrelevant here. His approach has been very solid as well. This is just an easy add to the card at a fair price.
Justin Rose (+5000) will continue the theme. He has finished inside the Top 12 in 3 of his last 4 events and while he doesn’t play the Scottish often, he does have a Top 10 a few years back.
Going back to November, Rose has played in 15 PGA Tour events. He has a win, 4 Top 10’s, and 5 more inside the Top 30. So in 2/3 of his events, he is finishing inside the Top 30.
Rose’s irons have been absolutely dialed in for almost all of 2023 and his putter can get hot. Jose is +350 Top 10, +160 Top 20, -150 Top 40, all of which are very attractive options – just be sure to play them “ties pay full”, because I do think we’ll see a fairly condensed leaderboard near the top.
Bombs
There are a LOT of guys that I think warrant consideration in the Top 20/30/40 markets this week.
Sahith Theegala (+8500) is very interesting, primarily because his putting has been so good. He has averaged almost 3 strokes putting gained over the past 8 events, including Top 10 finishes as the RBC Heritage and the Masters. His approach game is solid, it is off the tee where he usually gets in trouble. I don’t expect that to be a big thing, which makes the price on Theegala very attractive. +260 Top 20 and -110 Top 40 are very interesting.
Brian Harman (+12500) is coming in off back-to-back Top 10 finishes and he has done it with his irons and his putter…exactly what we’re looking for here. Throw in a 7th at the RBC and Harman has finished inside the Top 10 in 3 of his last 8 events.
He has gained on approach in 5 of his last 6 and he has gained with the putter in 5 straight. Really hard to find better form in what we’re looking for at this price. Harman is +320 Top 20 and +120 Top 40 – terrific prices.
Eric Cole (+15000) can flat out putt and his wedges have been fantastic. He’s another guy who loses off the tee and that shouldn’t hurt here. Cole has gained on approach in 9 of his last 10 has gained 5 strokes or more putting in 3 of his last 5.
This is a guy with 3 Top 10’s, 2 Top 20’s, and 4 Top 30’s in his last 16 events (56%). We’re getting him at +150 to finish inside the Top 40 – a price I think is worth taking.